ELO CHESS and
PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR).
NFL ratings will be
updated after games of
Sunday and
again after the
Monday night game.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NFL 2011 through games of 2012 January 22 Sunday - Conference Championships
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.89] [ 2.72] [ 2.86]
1 New England Patriots = 30.21 15 3 0 19.83( 20) 2 2 0 | 8 2 0 | 30.87 2 | 30.07 1
2 New Orleans Saints = 28.70 14 4 0 18.73( 30) 4 2 0 | 7 2 0 | 27.59 5 | 29.08 2
3 San Francisco 49ers = 28.12 14 4 0 19.77( 22) 5 2 0 | 5 3 0 | 27.88 4 | 28.20 3
4 Green Bay Packers = 27.66 15 2 0 18.99( 29) 4 1 0 | 8 1 0 | 31.10 1 | 27.09 5
5 New York Giants = 27.50 12 7 0 22.57( 2) 4 4 0 | 9 4 0 | 28.60 3 | 27.26 4
6 Baltimore Ravens = 26.66 13 5 0 19.76( 24) 5 1 0 | 6 2 0 | 26.04 6 | 26.86 6
7 Pittsburgh Steelers = 24.63 12 5 0 19.13( 27) 1 4 0 | 1 4 0 | 24.79 7 | 24.61 9
8 Philadelphia Eagles = 24.62 8 8 0 21.24( 6) 1 3 0 | 5 5 0 | 20.78 15 | 26.05 7
9 Houston Texans = 24.48 11 7 0 18.22( 32) 1 3 0 | 3 3 0 | 21.56 11 | 25.49 8
10 Detroit Lions = 23.72 10 7 0 20.52( 11) 0 5 0 | 3 7 0 | 23.83 8 | 23.70 10
NFL 2011 through games of 2012 January 22 Sunday - Conference Championships
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.89] [ 2.72] [ 2.86]
11 New York Jets = 22.62 8 8 0 21.32( 5) 0 5 0 | 3 6 0 | 21.34 12 | 23.00 11
12 Dallas Cowboys = 21.94 8 8 0 21.22( 7) 1 6 0 | 2 7 0 | 20.32 17 | 22.43 12
13 Miami Dolphins = 21.18 6 10 0 21.21( 8) 0 5 0 | 1 8 0 | 17.67 24 | 22.18 13
14 San Diego Chargers = 20.90 8 8 0 19.58( 25) 1 3 0 | 2 5 0 | 21.19 13 | 20.84 14
15 Atlanta Falcons = 20.51 10 7 0 20.02( 16) 2 5 0 | 2 6 0 | 21.86 10 | 20.17 15
16 Chicago Bears = 19.92 8 8 0 19.76( 23) 2 4 0 | 4 4 0 | 20.62 16 | 19.75 17
17 Seattle Seahawks = 19.70 7 9 0 20.41( 12) 3 3 0 | 4 5 0 | 18.28 22 | 20.10 16
18 Tennessee Titans = 19.46 9 7 0 18.29( 31) 2 3 0 | 2 4 0 | 19.70 18 | 19.41 18
19 Cincinnati Bengals = 19.08 9 8 0 19.77( 21) 0 7 0 | 0 7 0 | 19.60 19 | 18.96 19
20 Buffalo Bills = 18.43 6 10 0 21.68( 3) 2 2 0 | 2 8 0 | 18.03 23 | 18.55 20
NFL 2011 through games of 2012 January 22 Sunday - Conference Championships
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.89] [ 2.72] [ 2.86]
21 Arizona Cardinals = 18.14 8 8 0 19.99( 18) 2 4 0 | 3 4 0 | 19.13 21 | 17.88 21
22 Carolina Panthers = 17.24 6 10 0 19.13( 28) 1 4 0 | 1 7 0 | 15.28 25 | 17.74 22
23 Denver Broncos = 16.99 9 9 0 20.75( 10) 1 4 0 | 5 5 0 | 22.28 9 | 15.28 25
24 Oakland Raiders = 16.71 8 8 0 19.99( 17) 1 3 0 | 4 5 0 | 20.85 14 | 15.36 24
25 Washington Redskins = 16.35 5 11 0 21.61( 4) 2 4 0 | 2 8 0 | 15.03 26 | 16.70 23
26 Kansas City Chiefs = 14.60 7 9 0 19.94( 19) 1 3 0 | 3 6 0 | 19.14 20 | 12.75 29
27 Jacksonville Jaguars = 14.13 5 11 0 19.54( 26) 1 4 0 | 1 7 0 | 13.07 27 | 14.41 26
28 Cleveland Browns = 13.67 4 12 0 20.08( 14) 0 6 0 | 1 6 0 | 11.86 30 | 14.09 27
29 Minnesota Vikings = 13.31 3 13 0 20.26( 13) 0 5 0 | 0 9 0 | 12.05 29 | 13.62 28
30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 10.88 4 12 0 21.12( 9) 1 5 0 | 2 8 0 | 12.57 28 | 10.28 30
NFL 2011 through games of 2012 January 22 Sunday - Conference Championships
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.89] [ 2.72] [ 2.86]
31 St. Louis Rams = 9.15 2 14 0 22.68( 1) 1 7 0 | 1 8 0 | 9.86 31 | 8.95 32
32 Indianapolis Colts = 8.80 2 14 0 20.03( 15) 1 5 0 | 1 6 0 | 7.22 32 | 9.13 31
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Divisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 (NFC EAST) = 22.83 22.60 ( 2) 4 22.63 ( 2)
2 (afc east) = 22.70 23.11 ( 1) 4 23.06 ( 1)
3 (NFC NORTH) = 21.37 21.15 ( 3) 4 21.19 ( 3)
4 (afc north) = 21.29 21.01 ( 4) 4 21.05 ( 4)
5 (NFC SOUTH) = 19.18 19.33 ( 5) 4 19.29 ( 5)
6 (NFC WEST) = 18.82 18.78 ( 6) 4 18.79 ( 6)
7 (afc west) = 17.15 17.30 ( 7) 4 17.29 ( 7)
8 (afc south) = 16.74 16.72 ( 8) 4 16.72 ( 8)
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 (NFC EAST) = 22.83 22.60 ( 2) 4 22.63 ( 2)
3 (NFC NORTH) = 21.37 21.15 ( 3) 4 21.19 ( 3)
5 (NFC SOUTH) = 19.18 19.33 ( 5) 4 19.29 ( 5)
6 (NFC WEST) = 18.82 18.78 ( 6) 4 18.79 ( 6)
2 (afc east) = 22.70 23.11 ( 1) 4 23.06 ( 1)
4 (afc north) = 21.29 21.01 ( 4) 4 21.05 ( 4)
8 (afc south) = 16.74 16.72 ( 8) 4 16.72 ( 8)
7 (afc west) = 17.15 17.30 ( 7) 4 17.29 ( 7)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
By Division
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
1 (NFC EAST) = 22.83 22.60 ( 2) TEAMS= 4 22.63 ( 2)
NFL 2011 through games of 2012 January 22 Sunday - Conference Championships
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.89] [ 2.72] [ 2.86]
5 New York Giants = 27.50 12 7 0 22.57( 2) 4 4 0 | 9 4 0 | 28.60 3 | 27.26 4
8 Philadelphia Eagles = 24.62 8 8 0 21.24( 6) 1 3 0 | 5 5 0 | 20.78 15 | 26.05 7
12 Dallas Cowboys = 21.94 8 8 0 21.22( 7) 1 6 0 | 2 7 0 | 20.32 17 | 22.43 12
25 Washington Redskins = 16.35 5 11 0 21.61( 4) 2 4 0 | 2 8 0 | 15.03 26 | 16.70 23
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
3 (NFC NORTH) = 21.37 21.15 ( 3) TEAMS= 4 21.19 ( 3)
NFL 2011 through games of 2012 January 22 Sunday - Conference Championships
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.89] [ 2.72] [ 2.86]
4 Green Bay Packers = 27.66 15 2 0 18.99( 29) 4 1 0 | 8 1 0 | 31.10 1 | 27.09 5
10 Detroit Lions = 23.72 10 7 0 20.52( 11) 0 5 0 | 3 7 0 | 23.83 8 | 23.70 10
16 Chicago Bears = 19.92 8 8 0 19.76( 23) 2 4 0 | 4 4 0 | 20.62 16 | 19.75 17
29 Minnesota Vikings = 13.31 3 13 0 20.26( 13) 0 5 0 | 0 9 0 | 12.05 29 | 13.62 28
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
5 (NFC SOUTH) = 19.18 19.33 ( 5) TEAMS= 4 19.29 ( 5)
NFL 2011 through games of 2012 January 22 Sunday - Conference Championships
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.89] [ 2.72] [ 2.86]
2 New Orleans Saints = 28.70 14 4 0 18.73( 30) 4 2 0 | 7 2 0 | 27.59 5 | 29.08 2
15 Atlanta Falcons = 20.51 10 7 0 20.02( 16) 2 5 0 | 2 6 0 | 21.86 10 | 20.17 15
22 Carolina Panthers = 17.24 6 10 0 19.13( 28) 1 4 0 | 1 7 0 | 15.28 25 | 17.74 22
30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 10.88 4 12 0 21.12( 9) 1 5 0 | 2 8 0 | 12.57 28 | 10.28 30
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
6 (NFC WEST) = 18.82 18.78 ( 6) TEAMS= 4 18.79 ( 6)
NFL 2011 through games of 2012 January 22 Sunday - Conference Championships
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.89] [ 2.72] [ 2.86]
3 San Francisco 49ers = 28.12 14 4 0 19.77( 22) 5 2 0 | 5 3 0 | 27.88 4 | 28.20 3
17 Seattle Seahawks = 19.70 7 9 0 20.41( 12) 3 3 0 | 4 5 0 | 18.28 22 | 20.10 16
21 Arizona Cardinals = 18.14 8 8 0 19.99( 18) 2 4 0 | 3 4 0 | 19.13 21 | 17.88 21
31 St. Louis Rams = 9.15 2 14 0 22.68( 1) 1 7 0 | 1 8 0 | 9.86 31 | 8.95 32
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2 (afc east) = 22.70 23.11 ( 1) TEAMS= 4 23.06 ( 1)
NFL 2011 through games of 2012 January 22 Sunday - Conference Championships
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.89] [ 2.72] [ 2.86]
1 New England Patriots = 30.21 15 3 0 19.83( 20) 2 2 0 | 8 2 0 | 30.87 2 | 30.07 1
11 New York Jets = 22.62 8 8 0 21.32( 5) 0 5 0 | 3 6 0 | 21.34 12 | 23.00 11
13 Miami Dolphins = 21.18 6 10 0 21.21( 8) 0 5 0 | 1 8 0 | 17.67 24 | 22.18 13
20 Buffalo Bills = 18.43 6 10 0 21.68( 3) 2 2 0 | 2 8 0 | 18.03 23 | 18.55 20
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
4 (afc north) = 21.29 21.01 ( 4) TEAMS= 4 21.05 ( 4)
NFL 2011 through games of 2012 January 22 Sunday - Conference Championships
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.89] [ 2.72] [ 2.86]
6 Baltimore Ravens = 26.66 13 5 0 19.76( 24) 5 1 0 | 6 2 0 | 26.04 6 | 26.86 6
7 Pittsburgh Steelers = 24.63 12 5 0 19.13( 27) 1 4 0 | 1 4 0 | 24.79 7 | 24.61 9
19 Cincinnati Bengals = 19.08 9 8 0 19.77( 21) 0 7 0 | 0 7 0 | 19.60 19 | 18.96 19
28 Cleveland Browns = 13.67 4 12 0 20.08( 14) 0 6 0 | 1 6 0 | 11.86 30 | 14.09 27
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
8 (afc south) = 16.74 16.72 ( 8) TEAMS= 4 16.72 ( 8)
NFL 2011 through games of 2012 January 22 Sunday - Conference Championships
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.89] [ 2.72] [ 2.86]
9 Houston Texans = 24.48 11 7 0 18.22( 32) 1 3 0 | 3 3 0 | 21.56 11 | 25.49 8
18 Tennessee Titans = 19.46 9 7 0 18.29( 31) 2 3 0 | 2 4 0 | 19.70 18 | 19.41 18
27 Jacksonville Jaguars = 14.13 5 11 0 19.54( 26) 1 4 0 | 1 7 0 | 13.07 27 | 14.41 26
32 Indianapolis Colts = 8.80 2 14 0 20.03( 15) 1 5 0 | 1 6 0 | 7.22 32 | 9.13 31
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
7 (afc west) = 17.15 17.30 ( 7) TEAMS= 4 17.29 ( 7)
NFL 2011 through games of 2012 January 22 Sunday - Conference Championships
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.89] [ 2.72] [ 2.86]
14 San Diego Chargers = 20.90 8 8 0 19.58( 25) 1 3 0 | 2 5 0 | 21.19 13 | 20.84 14
23 Denver Broncos = 16.99 9 9 0 20.75( 10) 1 4 0 | 5 5 0 | 22.28 9 | 15.28 25
24 Oakland Raiders = 16.71 8 8 0 19.99( 17) 1 3 0 | 4 5 0 | 20.85 14 | 15.36 24
26 Kansas City Chiefs = 14.60 7 9 0 19.94( 19) 1 3 0 | 3 6 0 | 19.14 20 | 12.75 29
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|  |