ELO CHESS and
PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR).
NFL ratings will be
updated after games of
Sunday and
again after the
Monday night game.
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Final NFL 2009 through games of 2010 February 7 Sunday - Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.96 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
1 New Orleans Saints = 32.18 16 3 0 20.23( 15) 6 1 0 | 10 2 0 | 34.02 1 | 30.92 1
2 Indianapolis Colts = 29.86 16 3 0 20.76( 11) 4 2 0 | 8 2 0 | 32.65 2 | 28.08 4
3 Minnesota Vikings = 27.91 13 5 0 18.54( 29) 4 1 0 | 4 4 0 | 26.33 5 | 30.01 2
4 New York Jets = 27.69 11 8 0 22.51( 4) 3 4 0 | 5 6 0 | 26.93 3 | 28.53 3
5 San Diego Chargers = 25.99 13 4 0 18.80( 27) 1 2 0 | 3 3 0 | 26.59 4 | 25.41 9
6 New England Patriots = 25.89 10 7 0 22.33( 6) 3 4 0 | 5 6 0 | 24.20 8 | 27.99 5
7 Dallas Cowboys = 25.65 12 6 0 20.24( 14) 2 3 0 | 6 3 0 | 25.61 6 | 25.67 8
8 Baltimore Ravens = 25.58 10 8 0 20.89( 10) 2 5 0 | 3 6 0 | 23.86 9 | 27.72 6
9 Atlanta Falcons = 24.30 9 7 0 21.82( 7) 1 4 0 | 3 6 0 | 23.75 10 | 24.85 10
10 Green Bay Packers = 24.19 11 6 0 17.88( 32) 2 2 0 | 3 4 0 | 21.61 17 | 27.51 7
Final NFL 2009 through games of 2010 February 7 Sunday - Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.96 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
11 Philadelphia Eagles = 23.79 11 6 0 20.43( 13) 1 5 0 | 2 5 0 | 24.53 7 | 23.08 11
12 Carolina Panthers = 22.87 8 8 0 22.86( 3) 3 5 0 | 4 7 0 | 22.73 11 | 22.99 12
13 Houston Texans = 22.49 9 7 0 19.81( 22) 1 3 0 | 2 4 0 | 22.68 12 | 22.29 14
14 Miami Dolphins = 21.43 7 9 0 23.31( 2) 3 5 0 | 4 7 0 | 21.71 15 | 21.13 16
15 Arizona Cardinals = 21.37 11 7 0 18.72( 28) 2 3 0 | 3 4 0 | 22.63 13 | 20.13 19
16 Pittsburgh Steelers = 21.24 9 7 0 19.16( 26) 4 1 0 | 5 1 0 | 21.11 18 | 21.35 15
17 Cincinnati Bengals = 21.07 10 7 0 20.11( 17) 3 4 0 | 5 5 0 | 21.98 14 | 20.16 17
18 New York Giants = 20.52 8 8 0 21.02( 9) 3 3 0 | 3 7 0 | 20.99 19 | 20.02 20
19 Denver Broncos = 20.27 8 8 0 20.01( 19) 3 3 0 | 3 5 0 | 20.38 20 | 20.13 18
20 San Francisco 49ers = 20.21 8 8 0 17.92( 31) 0 4 0 | 2 6 0 | 17.94 23 | 22.49 13
Final NFL 2009 through games of 2010 February 7 Sunday - Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.96 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
21 Tennessee Titans = 19.76 8 8 0 21.13( 8) 0 5 0 | 3 7 0 | 21.61 16 | 17.88 21
22 Buffalo Bills = 18.18 6 10 0 22.44( 5) 2 5 0 | 4 7 0 | 18.68 21 | 17.65 22
23 Chicago Bears = 16.48 7 9 0 19.26( 25) 1 5 0 | 2 7 0 | 16.18 24 | 16.74 23
24 Jacksonville Jaguars = 16.20 7 9 0 20.11( 18) 1 3 0 | 3 5 0 | 18.44 22 | 13.43 26
25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 13.06 3 13 0 23.31( 1) 2 6 0 | 2 10 0 | 12.62 27 | 13.45 25
26 Washington Redskins = 12.84 4 12 0 19.87( 20) 0 5 0 | 0 8 0 | 10.82 30 | 14.37 24
27 Cleveland Browns = 12.66 5 11 0 19.82( 21) 0 5 0 | 1 6 0 | 13.91 26 | 11.09 29
28 Oakland Raiders = 12.56 5 11 0 20.71( 12) 0 5 0 | 2 6 0 | 14.79 25 | 9.04 30
29 Kansas City Chiefs = 11.93 4 12 0 19.72( 23) 0 4 0 | 1 5 0 | 12.17 28 | 11.66 28
30 Seattle Seahawks = 11.61 5 11 0 18.46( 30) 0 4 0 | 0 7 0 | 10.96 29 | 12.18 27
Final NFL 2009 through games of 2010 February 7 Sunday - Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.96 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
31 Detroit Lions = 6.41 2 14 0 20.14( 16) 0 6 0 | 0 8 0 | 4.83 31 | 7.48 31
32 St. Louis Rams = 3.82 1 15 0 19.72( 24) 0 4 0 | 0 7 0 | 2.79 32 | 4.58 32
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Divisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 (afc east) = 23.42 23.30 ( 1) 4 23.31 ( 1)
2 (NFC SOUTH) = 23.26 23.10 ( 2) 4 23.16 ( 2)
3 (afc south) = 21.76 22.08 ( 3) 4 22.02 ( 3)
4 (NFC EAST) = 21.19 20.70 ( 4) 4 20.77 ( 4)
5 (afc north) = 20.48 20.14 ( 5) 4 20.19 ( 5)
6 (NFC NORTH) = 19.27 18.74 ( 6) 4 18.95 ( 6)
7 (afc west) = 17.26 17.69 ( 7) 4 17.63 ( 7)
8 (NFC WEST) = 14.81 14.25 ( 8) 4 14.38 ( 8)
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
4 (NFC EAST) = 21.19 20.70 ( 4) 4 20.77 ( 4)
6 (NFC NORTH) = 19.27 18.74 ( 6) 4 18.95 ( 6)
2 (NFC SOUTH) = 23.26 23.10 ( 2) 4 23.16 ( 2)
8 (NFC WEST) = 14.81 14.25 ( 8) 4 14.38 ( 8)
1 (afc east) = 23.42 23.30 ( 1) 4 23.31 ( 1)
5 (afc north) = 20.48 20.14 ( 5) 4 20.19 ( 5)
3 (afc south) = 21.76 22.08 ( 3) 4 22.02 ( 3)
7 (afc west) = 17.26 17.69 ( 7) 4 17.63 ( 7)
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By Division
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4 (NFC EAST) = 21.19 20.70 ( 4) TEAMS= 4 20.77 ( 4)
Final NFL 2009 through games of 2010 February 7 Sunday - Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.96 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
7 Dallas Cowboys = 25.65 12 6 0 20.24( 14) 2 3 0 | 6 3 0 | 25.61 6 | 25.67 8
11 Philadelphia Eagles = 23.79 11 6 0 20.43( 13) 1 5 0 | 2 5 0 | 24.53 7 | 23.08 11
18 New York Giants = 20.52 8 8 0 21.02( 9) 3 3 0 | 3 7 0 | 20.99 19 | 20.02 20
26 Washington Redskins = 12.84 4 12 0 19.87( 20) 0 5 0 | 0 8 0 | 10.82 30 | 14.37 24
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6 (NFC NORTH) = 19.27 18.74 ( 6) TEAMS= 4 18.95 ( 6)
Final NFL 2009 through games of 2010 February 7 Sunday - Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.96 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
3 Minnesota Vikings = 27.91 13 5 0 18.54( 29) 4 1 0 | 4 4 0 | 26.33 5 | 30.01 2
10 Green Bay Packers = 24.19 11 6 0 17.88( 32) 2 2 0 | 3 4 0 | 21.61 17 | 27.51 7
23 Chicago Bears = 16.48 7 9 0 19.26( 25) 1 5 0 | 2 7 0 | 16.18 24 | 16.74 23
31 Detroit Lions = 6.41 2 14 0 20.14( 16) 0 6 0 | 0 8 0 | 4.83 31 | 7.48 31
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2 (NFC SOUTH) = 23.26 23.10 ( 2) TEAMS= 4 23.16 ( 2)
Final NFL 2009 through games of 2010 February 7 Sunday - Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.96 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
1 New Orleans Saints = 32.18 16 3 0 20.23( 15) 6 1 0 | 10 2 0 | 34.02 1 | 30.92 1
9 Atlanta Falcons = 24.30 9 7 0 21.82( 7) 1 4 0 | 3 6 0 | 23.75 10 | 24.85 10
12 Carolina Panthers = 22.87 8 8 0 22.86( 3) 3 5 0 | 4 7 0 | 22.73 11 | 22.99 12
25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 13.06 3 13 0 23.31( 1) 2 6 0 | 2 10 0 | 12.62 27 | 13.45 25
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8 (NFC WEST) = 14.81 14.25 ( 8) TEAMS= 4 14.38 ( 8)
Final NFL 2009 through games of 2010 February 7 Sunday - Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.96 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
15 Arizona Cardinals = 21.37 11 7 0 18.72( 28) 2 3 0 | 3 4 0 | 22.63 13 | 20.13 19
20 San Francisco 49ers = 20.21 8 8 0 17.92( 31) 0 4 0 | 2 6 0 | 17.94 23 | 22.49 13
30 Seattle Seahawks = 11.61 5 11 0 18.46( 30) 0 4 0 | 0 7 0 | 10.96 29 | 12.18 27
32 St. Louis Rams = 3.82 1 15 0 19.72( 24) 0 4 0 | 0 7 0 | 2.79 32 | 4.58 32
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1 (afc east) = 23.42 23.30 ( 1) TEAMS= 4 23.31 ( 1)
Final NFL 2009 through games of 2010 February 7 Sunday - Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.96 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
4 New York Jets = 27.69 11 8 0 22.51( 4) 3 4 0 | 5 6 0 | 26.93 3 | 28.53 3
6 New England Patriots = 25.89 10 7 0 22.33( 6) 3 4 0 | 5 6 0 | 24.20 8 | 27.99 5
14 Miami Dolphins = 21.43 7 9 0 23.31( 2) 3 5 0 | 4 7 0 | 21.71 15 | 21.13 16
22 Buffalo Bills = 18.18 6 10 0 22.44( 5) 2 5 0 | 4 7 0 | 18.68 21 | 17.65 22
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5 (afc north) = 20.48 20.14 ( 5) TEAMS= 4 20.19 ( 5)
Final NFL 2009 through games of 2010 February 7 Sunday - Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.96 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
8 Baltimore Ravens = 25.58 10 8 0 20.89( 10) 2 5 0 | 3 6 0 | 23.86 9 | 27.72 6
16 Pittsburgh Steelers = 21.24 9 7 0 19.16( 26) 4 1 0 | 5 1 0 | 21.11 18 | 21.35 15
17 Cincinnati Bengals = 21.07 10 7 0 20.11( 17) 3 4 0 | 5 5 0 | 21.98 14 | 20.16 17
27 Cleveland Browns = 12.66 5 11 0 19.82( 21) 0 5 0 | 1 6 0 | 13.91 26 | 11.09 29
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3 (afc south) = 21.76 22.08 ( 3) TEAMS= 4 22.02 ( 3)
Final NFL 2009 through games of 2010 February 7 Sunday - Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.96 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
2 Indianapolis Colts = 29.86 16 3 0 20.76( 11) 4 2 0 | 8 2 0 | 32.65 2 | 28.08 4
13 Houston Texans = 22.49 9 7 0 19.81( 22) 1 3 0 | 2 4 0 | 22.68 12 | 22.29 14
21 Tennessee Titans = 19.76 8 8 0 21.13( 8) 0 5 0 | 3 7 0 | 21.61 16 | 17.88 21
24 Jacksonville Jaguars = 16.20 7 9 0 20.11( 18) 1 3 0 | 3 5 0 | 18.44 22 | 13.43 26
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7 (afc west) = 17.26 17.69 ( 7) TEAMS= 4 17.63 ( 7)
Final NFL 2009 through games of 2010 February 7 Sunday - Super Bowl
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.96 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
5 San Diego Chargers = 25.99 13 4 0 18.80( 27) 1 2 0 | 3 3 0 | 26.59 4 | 25.41 9
19 Denver Broncos = 20.27 8 8 0 20.01( 19) 3 3 0 | 3 5 0 | 20.38 20 | 20.13 18
28 Oakland Raiders = 12.56 5 11 0 20.71( 12) 0 5 0 | 2 6 0 | 14.79 25 | 9.04 30
29 Kansas City Chiefs = 11.93 4 12 0 19.72( 23) 0 4 0 | 1 5 0 | 12.17 28 | 11.66 28
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